(Clean Energy Wire) Dispatch from France, September 2024

The fate of France’s green transition remains on hold despite President Emmanuel Macron finally appointing a new prime minister in Michel Barnier. The decision to name a new prime minister had been a long time coming, following the dissolution of the National Assembly in response to the crushing defeat to Macron’s party in June’s European elections. Macron, who struggled to form a new government following the snap elections that saw a left-wing electoral alliance win the most seats without gaining an absolute majority, left the nation wondering what the future held, despite the distraction of the Paris Olympic Games. Will right-winger Barnier – Europe’s former chief Brexit negotiator – be up to the task of healing France’s political turmoil? That remains to be seen.

Stories to watch in the weeks ahead

Dark summer – The Paris Olympic Games have ended and France is still without a government. President Emmanuel Macron has finally named Michel Barnier, the former European commissioner and member of conservative party The Republicans (LR), as his new prime minister. Macron had struggled to launch a new round of negotiations after he refused to nominate Lucie Castets from the left-wing New Popular Front (NFP) – the alliance which won the most seats in July’s snap elections. There is no formal timetable for Macron and Barnier to agree on the composition of the new government, although Barnier promised to form it during the week starting on 16 September. To do so, he will have to consider all political parties present in the National Assembly in order to ensure a broad support and avoid a vote of no confidence. So far, there are more questions than answers.

Texts on hold – France finally – and belatedly – handed its National Energy and Climate Plan (NECP) to the European Commission in July. However, the dissolution of the National Assembly put other major energy and climate bills on hold. These include the national plan for adaptation to climate change (PNACC), the new multiannual energy programme (PPE), the national low-carbon strategy (SNBC), and the multiannual financing strategy for the green transition, set to be released this year for the first time. In short, the country still has no energy and climate programming law (LPEC), the framework that covers its green targets.

Budget uncertainties – The future of France’s green planning is up in the air as there is much political and financial uncertainty around the 2025 budget bill, which must be completed by the constitutional deadline of 1 October. The situation is unprecedented as the appointment of new ministers hasn’t happened yet, when the bill usually allows the government with a majority in the National Assembly to put forward its priorities. The budget text is awaited at a time when France is being urged by the European Union to return to a deficit below three percent, and must match its climate strategy with a financing plan.

Heating down – Gas prices are expected to slightly drop in September after several consecutive months of increases. Meanwhile, French economy and finance minister Bruno Le Maire promised in June to reduce electricity bills by 10 to 15 percent by February 2025 by relaunching the nuclear industry. The government-owned electric utility company EDF also announced a “sustainable” fall in power prices in the coming months, thanks to an increase in nuclear and hydropower production.

The latest from France – last month in recap

New energy mix – The appointment of Barnier, a pro-nuclear policy advocate and a wind power critic, might determine the future steps taken to relaunch the French nuclear industry, which he deems essential to reach the country’s decarbonisation goals. A nuclear renaissance will ultimately depend on the ministers he chooses and the support he gets. Thousands of protesters took to the streets following his nomination, responding to a call by the left-wing alliance NFP, urging Macron to recognise the outcome of the parliamentary elections.

Next stop, nuclear – Despite being bogged down in the construction of a reactor at Flamanville, which is now starting 12 years behind schedule, state-owned utility firm EDF announced plans to build a new reactor. This is among the six, and possibly up to 14, reactors that the government plans to invest in between now and 2035-2040. EDF head Luc Rémont set the target of building the new reactors in under six years – or half the current building time – each.  Meanwhile, the group cut production capacity at several of its nuclear reactors amid heatwaves this summer.

Under the sun – Europe’s largest floating solar project should soon see the light of the day as renewable energy services company Q ENERGY announced in early September that it had raised 50.4 million euros. The 74.3 megawatt (MW) floating solar power plant, which is being built in the Haute-Marne department in north-eastern France, is expected to supply the equivalent of 37,000 homes with clean electricity each year.

On top of exports – France remained Europe’s top physical net power exporter in the first half of 2024 at 40.8 TWh – up from 13 TWh at the same period last year, boosted by higher nuclear output, a surplus of hydropower and lower demand.

Highlights from upcoming events and top reads

Betting on climate adaptation to unify a broken parliament: this is what the head of the Institute for Climate Economics (I4CE), Benoît Leguet, proposes in an opinion column for Les Échos, as divisions within the National Assembly will likely bring forward project coalitions. And what better way to collaborate on than climate change adaptation? “There is not one good way to adapt, just choices to make.”

While France waits for new ministers, unaddressed energy and climate dossiers like hydrogen, nuclear power and carbon capture are piling up with no one to take care of them. As Euractiv journalist Paul Messad writes in an article from September, “industry fears that this governmental paralysis puts the country’s energy and climate goals and associated investment at risk”.